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New Military Alliance SHAKES South America?
A geopolitical earthquake shakes South America. Rumors and discussions about a possible military alliance between the region’s major powers, Brazil and Argentina, gain strength, raising alarms in Washington and other global capitals. Would this be the end of U.S. hegemony in the continent? A new era of strategic autonomy? Or a prelude to even greater regional tensions? Find out next what is happening and what the possible consequences of this radical change in the South American scenario are. American continent. continente americano.
Context/Current Situation: The Search for Strategic Autonomy
South America, historically seen as the “backyard” of the United States, has shown a growing desire for greater autonomy in its internal and external policies. This longing is manifested in various areas, from trade agreements to seeking defense partnerships. The idea of a military alliance between Brazil and Argentina, although still in its early stages, represents a milestone in this quest for autonomy, challenging the status quo established decades ago. American continent. continente americano.
Several factors contribute to this new reality. Firstly, the increasing global multipolarism, with the rise of powers such as China and Russia, offers alternatives to the traditional influence of the U.S. Secondly, political and social instability in various countries in the region, along with growing transnational crime, drive the need to strengthen regional security through internal mechanisms. American continent. continente americano.
Experts point out that the gradual decrease in U.S. influence in the region, evidenced by less engagement in South American issues and a greater focus on other global priorities, creates a vacuum that countries like Brazil and Argentina seek to fill. However, this change does not occur without resistance and raises concerns about regional stability and the future of relations with the United States. American continent. continente americano.
In-Depth Analysis: Data and Implications of the New Alliance
The formation of a military alliance between Brazil and Argentina would have a significant impact on the regional balance of power. Together, the two countries represent approximately **63% of the GDP of South America** and have the largest armed forces in the region. According to data from the *Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)*, in 2023, Brazil was the country that invested the most in defense in South America, totaling **US$ 22.9 billion**. Argentina, in turn, invested **US$ 4.2 billion** in the same period. American continent. continente americano.
The combined forces of the two countries could result in greater deterrence capability and a more effective response to threats such as transnational organized crime, terrorism, and piracy. Additionally, the alliance could strengthen the regional defense industry, promoting research and development of new technologies and reducing dependence on external suppliers. But, would this alliance be able to ensure regional stability, or would it only create new lines of tension? American continent. continente americano.
Despite the potential benefits, the formation of the alliance also faces significant challenges. Political and ideological divergences between the two countries, as well as different defense priorities, may hinder the coordination and implementation of common policies. Competition for influence in the region could also generate friction and undermine mutual trust. “The key to the success of the alliance lies in the ability of Brazil and Argentina to overcome their differences and build a shared strategic vision,” says Argentine political analyst Juan Pérez. American continent. continente americano.
Data from the *World Bank* shows that the combined military expenditure of Brazil and Argentina represents only **1.4% of the combined GDP**, a relatively low value compared to other regions of the world. The military alliance could boost an increase in this percentage, raising concerns about a possible arms race in the region. But, would this increase be justifiable given the growing threats to regional security? American continent. continente americano.
A study by the *Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV)* indicates that defense cooperation between Brazil and Argentina has intensified in recent years, with joint military exercises and intelligence information exchange. However, the lack of a solid legal and institutional framework to regulate this cooperation still poses an obstacle. Could the new alliance overcome these limitations? American continent. continente americano.
Impact for Brazil/World: Global Geopolitical Implications
The formation of a South American military alliance, led by Brazil and Argentina, would have implications that transcend the region’s borders. Firstly, it would represent a direct challenge to U.S. influence in Latin America, opening space for the entry of other global actors, such as China and Russia. A report by the *RAND Corporation* warns that China’s increasing presence in the region, through investments in infrastructure and trade, could undermine the U.S.’s ability to influence events in South America. American continent.
Secondly, the alliance could inspire other countries in the region to seek greater autonomy in their defense policies, weakening the U.S.’s position as the main supplier of military equipment and strategic partner. Data from the *U.S. Department of State* shows that the United States is the main arms supplier to Latin America, with a market share of approximately **45%**. A South American military alliance could reduce this dependence, opening space for other suppliers. American continent.
Thirdly, the alliance could alter the global balance of power, strengthening South America’s role as an independent actor on the international stage. Brazil, in particular, has shown increasing ambition to become a regional and global leader, seeking greater participation in international forums and advocating for global governance reform. The military alliance could provide Brazil with the means to realize this ambition. “Brazil has the potential to become a pole of stability and leadership in South America, and the military alliance with Argentina
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