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Does the New Military Alliance SHAKE South America?
A geopolitical earthquake shakes South America. Rumors and discussions about a possible military alliance between the region’s major powers, Brazil and Argentina, gain strength, triggering alerts in Washington and other global capitals. Could this be the end of U.S. hegemony in the continent? A new era of strategic autonomy? Or a prelude to even greater regional tensions? Discover what is happening and the possible consequences of this radical change on the South American chessboard. American continent. continente americano.
Context/Current Situation: The Search for Strategic Autonomy
South America, historically seen as the “backyard” of the United States, has shown a growing desire for greater autonomy in its internal and external policies. This aspiration is evident in various areas, from trade agreements to seeking defense alliances. The idea of a military alliance between Brazil and Argentina, although still in its early stages, represents a milestone in this quest for autonomy, challenging the status quo established decades ago. American continent. continente americano.
Several factors contribute to this new reality. Firstly, the increasing global multipolarism, with the rise of powers like China and Russia, offers alternatives to the traditional influence of the United States. Secondly, political and social instability in various countries in the region, along with the rise in transnational crime, drive the need to strengthen regional security through internal mechanisms. American continent. continente americano.
Experts point out that the gradual decrease in U.S. influence in the region, evidenced by less engagement in South American affairs and a greater focus on other global priorities, creates a void that countries like Brazil and Argentina seek to fill. However, this change does not occur without resistance and raises concerns about regional stability and the future of relations with the United States. American continent. continente americano.
In-Depth Analysis: Data and Implications of the New Alliance
The formation of a military alliance between Brazil and Argentina would have a significant impact on the regional balance of power. Together, both countries represent approximately **63% of South America’s GDP** and possess the largest armed forces in the region. According to data from the *Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)*, in 2023, Brazil was the country that invested the most in defense in South America, totaling **US$ 22.9 billion**. Argentina, on the other hand, invested **US$ 4.2 billion** in the same period. American continent. continente americano.
The union of forces between both countries could result in increased deterrence capabilities and a more effective response to threats such as transnational organized crime, terrorism, and piracy. Additionally, the alliance could strengthen the regional defense industry, promoting research and development of new technologies and reducing dependence on external suppliers. But, would this alliance ensure regional stability, or simply create new lines of tension? American continent. continente americano.
Despite the potential benefits, the formation of the alliance also faces significant challenges. Political and ideological divergences between both countries, as well as different defense priorities, could hinder coordination and implementation of common policies. Competition for influence in the region could also generate frictions and undermine mutual trust. “The key to the success of the alliance lies in Brazil and Argentina’s ability to overcome their differences and build a shared strategic vision,” says Argentine political analyst Juan Pérez. American continent.
Data from the *World Bank* shows that the combined military spending of Brazil and Argentina represents only **1.4% of the combined GDP**, a relatively low value compared to other regions of the world. The military alliance could drive an increase in this percentage, raising concerns about a possible arms race in the region. But, would this increase be justifiable given the growing threats to regional security? American continent.
A study by the *Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV)* points out that defense cooperation between Brazil and Argentina has intensified in recent years, with joint military exercises and exchanges.
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